Bitcoin's price chart often reveals intriguing patterns and anomalies that captivate the attention of traders and investors alike. In recent times, a notable anomaly has emerged, prompting questions about its implications for future price movements. In this post, we'll delve into this anomaly with a critical eye, examining whether it could potentially signal a bearish pattern for Bitcoin. Effective forecasting lets you anticipate future outcomes, make strategic decisions, and prepare for various potential scenarios, that said it is important to remember that these forecasts remain just speculation and are not indicators of future price movements. 

Historical Price Data: One of the first steps in analyzing this anomaly is to delve into historical price data surrounding Bitcoin's halving events. By examining previous halving cycles, we can identify trends and anomalies that may shed light on the current situation. So let' s give a look to previous halving cycles:  

So as we can see, in the previous halving cycles, BTC reached its All Time Highs just after the halving events (ATH are the red dots, Halving Events are the vertical neon green lines). The anomaly that we can see is that after the last halving event in 2020, the bullish momentum of the price chart didn' t reach as many ATHs as in the previous events denoting less strenght, and if we look at the price chart of the last 3 years and a half, we can clearly see that the price of Bitcoin has had a more horizontal momentum than a vertical one, denoting a more accentuated distribution phase and also a less volatile cycle. This could mean two things. One, may be for the first time, we are going to see a different pattern than the one that everyone is waiting for. Two, the price could repeat the usual up trend giving more strenght to Bitcoin' s and more in general crypto' s narrative.

Moving Averages: Utilizing moving averages, such as the widely-followed 50-day and 200-day moving averages, allows us to gauge the overall trend in Bitcoin's price. Are there any significant deviations or crossovers occurring, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment?

At the top left we can see the 1 month time frame chart of Bitcoin's 50 day Moving Average, top right 3 months time frame, bottom left 6 months time frame, bottom right all time time frame. Let' s now peer into the 200 day Moving Average with the same time frames.

So as we can see in both: the 50 day MA and in the 200 day MA we have a significant up trend going on, denoting not much of an anomaly if we compare them with the other halving events. The only difference is that in the previous cycles the spikes in price happened after the halving events and not before like in the current scenario. This could mean two things: one, this halving event is going to create another uptrend as we never saw before, or two we could see for the first time a bearish pattern after the event.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI provides insights into the momentum of Bitcoin's price movements, helping us identify overbought or oversold conditions. Is the RSI indicating that Bitcoin is currently in an extreme state, possibly hinting at a bearish reversal? Let' s peer together into that: 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) chart is a momentum based visualization for the Bitcoin market. We use the RSI to measure the speed as well as the magnitude of directional price movements in Bitcoin. Depending on how fast a price changes and by how much, an RSI score is given to the month being observed relative to the previous 12 months.

- A high RSI means that price movements are very positive relative to the previous 12 months.
- A low RSI means that price movements are very negative relative to the previous 12 months.

Essentially the RSI, when graphed, provides a visual mean to monitor both the current, as well as historical, strength and weakness of a particular market. The strength or weakness is based on closing prices over the duration of a specified trading period creating a reliable metric of price and momentum changes.

How to Interpret Relative Strength Index

Each dot along the chart represents a month of time and its score is evaluated relative to the previous 12 months. Traditional usage of the RSI states that values of 70 or above indicate that Bitcoin is becoming overbought and may soon fall. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates that BTC is oversold and may soon skyrocket. 

So as we can see here, in the previous halving events, just before the events, the RSI of BTC was allways roughly < than 40, at the moment the anomaly is that we are hovering above 60. This could mean two things: one, in the next week just before the event, we might see an accentuated sell off in order to give the chance to the price to go at higher heights with new ATHs, or we might go in the overbought area > 70 giving another sign of an incoming bearish pattern after the event.

Volume Analysis: Examining trading volume alongside price action can provide valuable insights into the strength and sustainability of Bitcoin's trends. Are there any notable divergences between price movements and trading volume that could suggest a weakening bullish sentiment? Let' s check it out:

So, under the all time price chart, highlithed in the blue band, we can see that the trading volume one more time is experiencing an anomaly compared to the previous cycles, instead of being in a lower state like between 20/21 it' s already pretty high denoting a distribution phase. One more time we can forecast the two possible scenarios: a less probable super bullish momentum incoming, or an easier to happen bearish pattern.

On-chain Metrics: Analyzing on-chain metrics, such as transaction volume, miner activity and many other metrics, offers a glimpse into the underlying fundamentals of the Bitcoin network. Are there any concerning trends or developments occurring on-chain that could influence price dynamics? Let' s give straight away a look:

So here are a lot of different charts with many different data, this time we can see one more time how almost in every one of these charts we are experiencing anomalies compared to the other halving events. There are only a couple of metrics that are following the usual trend and those are the BTC Hashrate, the HashPrice Index and the Monthly BTC Electricity Consumption. If we look at the monthly miners' revenue metrics for example we can see how in this upcoming halving event, the miners have the possibility to take some profits before the happening of the event meanwhile the revenue earned by transaction fees has decreased, giving a potential sign of selling pressure. Keeping that in mind, one more time the thesis can be two: a very bullish price movement is incoming, or a bearish pattern will be confirmed by the anomalies.

Sentiment Analysis: Monitoring sentiment indicators, including social media activity and news sentiment, helps gauge market sentiment and potential shifts in investor mood. Are there any notable shifts in sentiment that could foreshadow a bearish turn in Bitcoin's price? Let' s peer also into that:

Given the extreme Greed sentiment this is another confirmation of the two possible and extremely different scenarios. One: BTC holders could decide to take advantage of the situation and dump their coins in order to take profits; two: the Demand is going to be more than the Supply and drive the price chart in another uptrend.

Market Correlations: Assessing correlations between Bitcoin and other assets provides insights into broader market trends and potential external influences. Are there any correlations emerging that could impact Bitcoin's price trajectory in the near term? Let' s take a look into BTC' s dominance chart:

One more time we can clearly see that we are experiencing a big anomaly, if we compare the time frames where the last Bitcoin halvings happened. One more time we can deduce our two possible divergent scenarios.

Fundamental Analysis: Considering fundamental factors, such as regulatory developments and adoption trends, allows us to evaluate the long-term viability of Bitcoin and its potential for future price appreciation. Are there any fundamental factors at play that could exacerbate or mitigate the bearish signal? New ETFs approvals and more investors peering into BTC as an investment mean signals an incoming mass adoption, regulations around crypto are slowly becoming a reality worldwide, big institutional players are joining the network and with them also retail investors. This normally would not signal a bearish pattern, but since in this cycle we are encountering a lot of anomalies, it is not given us the certainty of another uptrend that will bring new ATHs. So let' s be cautious and rational. Big whales could decide in any given moment to take profits and drive down the price, or by hodling, they could give a new sign of uptrend, as it has usually happened in the last halving events. Keeping that in mind, I personally bought some more BTC, because on the long-term scenario I remain as bullish as ever and even if we might encounter a bearish pattern after the halving event, I' m keen on keep hodling for the next years to come. What about you? Do you have any thoughts about what is going to happen at this upcoming halving event? Are you bullish on Bitcoin on the long run? Feel free to leave a comment down here. Anyways, all of this said, I just would like to remind, as always, that I ain' t a financial advisor, I just like crypto. All the analysis here reflect just my personal opinion, don' t forget to Do Your Own Research.

Until we meet again, stay true, stay cryptoniac.